Evidently, this particular scenario may not come to fruition. Nevertheless, we deem it a likely outcome. Episodes of profound collapses and panic, similar to the one observed in 2020, frequently precede commodity supercycles.
Starting in 2020, the commodity market may have entered a supercycle phase. Such supercycles usually extend beyond 8 years and lead to substantial price escalations.
Scenario 1. Since 2020, the commodity market might have been going through a supercycle. Scenario 2. Copper could be undergoing a brief correction phase before retesting the lows of 2022. The catalyst for this scenario might be a recession expected to materialize in 2024.
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