Case Study 0019: Long Upper Shadow and Shooting Star (AUD/USD)

In this article, we will cover the performance of the AUD/USD after the emergence of a long upper shadow and an evening star pattern.

Data Sheet

  • Reference: CS0019
  • Security: AUD/USD
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart (April 05, 2022)
  • Patterns:
    • Spinning Tops
    • Long Upper Shadow
    • Shooting Star
    • Evening Star

1. Signal Formation

The rally that began in February 2022 gave its first sign of peaking with a series of spinning tops in late March 2022. Then the market displayed an upward move characterized by a green candle followed by a long upper shadow session. Since this upper shadow is basically twice the length of the real body, we can also classify this candle as a variation of the shooting star pattern. Be aware that the more traditional shooting stars exhibits a smaller real body.

AUD/USD: Long Upper Shadow and Shooting Star in April 2022 (Daily Chart)
AUD/USD: Long Upper Shadow and Shooting Star in April 2022 (Daily Chart)

2. Early Market Transition

Following the long upper shadow candlestick, the AUD/USD pair printed a large bearish candle. The resulting three-candle combination could be viewed, arguably, as a variation of the evening star pattern.

A classic evening star consists of a large bullish candle followed by a small-bodied candle that gaps higher, and a large bearish candle that closes into the body of the first candle. The evening star highlighted below, while being a less-than-perfect version of this pattern, still presents its bearish implications as indicated by the arrangement of the three candlesticks.

AUD/USD: Variation of the Evening Star (Daily Chart)
AUD/USD: Variation of the Evening Star (Daily Chart)

3. Resolution

The convergence of the reversal patterns noted above was followed by a prolonged downtrend of the pair of almost 20 percent.

AUD/USD: Downtrend After the Peak in April 2022 (Daily Chart)
AUD/USD: Downtrend After the Peak in April 2022 (Daily Chart)

4. Conclusion and Subjective Review

One should not underestimate the potential of variations (suboptimal versions of a candlestick pattern). They can provide important clues about the state of the market, especially when several of them converge in a short period of time and/or appear in the vicinity of resistance zones.

When you zoom out from the earlier chart, it becomes apparent that the reversal signals appeared within a notably significant resistance area.

AUD/USD: Candlestick Patterns within a Resistance Zone (Daily Chart)
AUD/USD: Candlestick Patterns within a Resistance Zone (Daily Chart)
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